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Prediction markets for Copilot

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4399

1460

Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?

Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3610413

OptionProbability

Nobody (linked market resolves NO)

Other

Google (eg Gemini)

OpenAI (eg ChatGPT)

Anthropic (eg Claude)

IBM (eg Watson)

Microsoft (eg Copilot)

Mira (https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_)

DeepSeek

Amazon

Meta

60

18

13

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Microsoft Copilot continue to rely primarily on OpenAI foundation models at the end of 2025?

Mar 19, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.92%chance

345296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4841

219

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.99%chance

101948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.88%chance

341153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

862

What will be the main product of the first $1T AI company

Nov 19, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39995

OptionProbability

Assistant

Media Generation

Other

Coding

Search

Weapons

Synthetic biology

Stock Trading

"Copilot for Lawyers/Bureaucrats"

Human extinction

Social Media & Ad Selection

Loan Assessments

Consulting

37

22

16

10

9

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will the markov.bio AI copilot for drug discovery be influential in the R&D of a marketed drug? (Before 2030)

Sep 11, 11:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8%chance

9570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

445

109

By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?

Oct 5, 4:35 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

90.97%chance

9376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

386

144

Will any AI Agent vendor announce >1M deployed enterprise AI agents by the end of Q1, 2026?

Dec 8, 5:51 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

170

OptionProbability

Sierra AI

Copilot

Hubspot

Service Now

Intercom

ZenDesk

Agentforce

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

Will Microsoft announce a standalone 'Copilot for Business Processes' product separate from 365 Copilot by mid-2026?"

Dec 8, 5:53 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

M100 for best explanation why I should or should not give a shit about Microsoft trying to inundate me with Copilot

Feb 13, 10:36 PM

00

Go try and get our AI sales copilot to hallucinate at magicform.ai

Jul 22, 2:10 AMJul 22, 6:59 AM

00

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