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Prediction markets for Core Network

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

65.81%chance

151224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

922

244

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

How many outages will CloudFlare have in 2026?

Dec 13, 6:45 AMDec 13, 6:59 AM

9709

OptionProbability

4 - 5

6 - 7

8 - 9

10+

2 - 3

0 - 1

29

29

20

18

2

1

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

YouTube, A social Networking site will still be a Google product till Feb. 24 2026

Dec 7, 5:34 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

96.03%chance

4392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

492

20

China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?

Nov 26, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.04%chance

7235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will Apple enable users to use gesture and voice input as primary interaction methods by 2028?

Mar 12, 6:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.74%chance

4210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

172

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

What will the MSRP of the Flipper One?

May 28, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

454

OptionProbability

$400 – $499

$300 – $399

$200 – $299

$500 – $599

$600 – $699

$700 – $799

Below $199

Above $800

27

24

9

9

9

9

7

7

Who will run the Anglosphere at the end of June 2028?

Aug 18, 3:24 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

442

OptionProbability

International Democracy Union

Progressive Alliance

67

33

Bitcoin: Knots vs Core in 2026

Sep 24, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

220

OptionProbability

Core

Knots

59

41

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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