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Prediction markets for Corporate

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.48%chance

412512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

949

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.58%chance

30755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

968

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Apr 6, 1:16 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

10498

OptionProbability

YES

NO

159

121

Will Safra Catz (CEO of Oracle Corporation) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 8, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

8491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

64

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Feb 19, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

14430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

101

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Aug 30, 4:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4349

OptionProbability

USA

China

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Germany

Canada

Japan

Austria

Australia

Spain

Russia

99

93

69

57

41

31

29

26

20

20

6

4

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.8%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

943

Will corporal punishment of children be outlawed in England by 2029?

May 19, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.97%chance

12236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?

Feb 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.77%chance

8235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

127

Now Sony buys Fox Corporation in 2033 in networks

Feb 10, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

6102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Apr 6, 1:24 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

225

OptionProbability

NO

YES

55

45

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