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Prediction markets for Corporate

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.53%chance

30915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

774

Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.58%chance

30755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

968

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Apr 6, 1:16 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

10498

OptionProbability

YES

NO

159

121

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?

Feb 19, 9:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

14430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

101

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Aug 30, 4:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4349

OptionProbability

USA

China

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Germany

Canada

Japan

Austria

Australia

Spain

Russia

99

93

69

57

41

31

29

26

20

20

6

4

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5310

OptionProbability

CNSA

SpaceX

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

33

28

17

10

6

5

0

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?

Feb 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.77%chance

8235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

127

Will Safra Catz (CEO of Oracle Corporation) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 8, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.81%chance

6180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

73

X Corporation public stock

Jan 28, 11:10 PM

2148

OptionProbability

NO

YES

318

97

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Apr 6, 1:24 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

225

OptionProbability

NO

YES

55

45

Will Sabre Corporation (SABR) file for bankruptcy before the end of 2028?

Feb 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.69%chance

418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

97

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