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Prediction markets for Corporate

Will OpenPhil or a related entity (eg Effective Ventures) sue OpenAI over corporate restructuring by end of 2025?

Sep 26, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.28%chance

192773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2804

357

Will an AI be granted the same level of personhood as a corporation in the US by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.37%chance

221181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

919

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.09%chance

29815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

674

Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.58%chance

30755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

968

Will any Fortune 500 corporation mostly/entirely replace their customer service workforce with AI by 2026?

Oct 18, 8:01 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.47%chance

10693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

183

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Apr 6, 1:16 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

10498

OptionProbability

YES

NO

159

121

Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?

Jun 5, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11%chance

16420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will the minimum global corporate tax of 15% be able to end tax competition and raise additional sizeable revenue?

Jan 5, 2:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.71%chance

15380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

957

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5310

OptionProbability

CNSA

SpaceX

NASA

ESA

Other

JAXA

Roscosmos

33

28

17

10

6

5

0

Will corporal punishment of children be outlawed in England by 2029?

May 19, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.58%chance

12223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will Sabre Corporation (SABR) file for bankruptcy before the end of 2028?

Feb 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.69%chance

418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

97

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