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Prediction markets for Corporate Development

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2028?

Oct 11, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.92%chance

132284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2719

368

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.12%chance

191260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

570

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

30.22%chance

141186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

66.48%chance

7808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

710

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.73%chance

19709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

961

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will the UK declare a special economic zone before 2035?

May 11, 1:55 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

45.67%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will US entities' control over Congolese cobalt resources exceed 40 on a scale of 1-100 by August 11, 2026?

Feb 12, 12:01 AMAug 11, 12:01 AM

46.02%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Which will happen first; the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go: under 45000 or over 50000.

Mar 6, 4:21 PMDec 31, 4:16 PM

77.07%chance

2120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

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