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Prediction markets for Corporate Development

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2028?

Oct 11, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.92%chance

132284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2719

368

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

34.63%chance

181220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

640

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by June 30, 2026?

Jan 12, 5:35 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

69.72%chance

6757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1518

659

Will Alcoa announce Final Investment Decision for Wagerup gallium by March 31, 2026?

Jan 12, 4:34 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

28.86%chance

7741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1570

637

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.9%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

977

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

5308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

When will Rupert Murdoch die?

Jul 20, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5228

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030

2029

2028

2025

23

21

19

18

17

2

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?

Jan 20, 8:15 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

74.21%chance

580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

59

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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