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Prediction markets for Corporate Development

Will "Mythos-class" model be called Mythos?

Apr 11, 11:35 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

11.32%chance

4230326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

695

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2028?

Oct 11, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

143184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3619

276

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.31%chance

112174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

629

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.25%chance

20778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

940

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?

Jan 20, 8:15 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

71.22%chance

697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Who will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?

Jul 19, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

673

OptionProbability

Chinese state or private enterprise

No artificial-gravity station launched by resolution date

US Company and/or NASA

European company or agency

Russian company or Roscosmos

Other

28

28

12

12

10

10

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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