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Top stories

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

Authors

3

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Corpus

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.52%chance

286689112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25059

4459

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.25%chance

6011901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

730

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

346732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

667

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

496

Will President Trump suspend Habeas Corpus?

May 10, 1:22 PMJan 20, 2:06 PM

36.96%chance

161620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

Will the Trump Administration suspend Habeas Corpus in 2025?

May 10, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

321092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Markers for conscious AI #1: AI passes introspection on world-models test

Nov 2, 3:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10677

OptionProbability

<2030

<2027

>=2030

<2026

31

29

20

19

What will be the next book/story in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” universe released by George R. R. Martin (in his life)?

Apr 8, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3108

OptionProbability

A book in the main ASOIAF series (ie a sequel to “A Dance with Dragons”, eg “The Winds of Winter”)

A sequel to “Fire & Blood”

A “Dunk and Egg” story or stories

A different in-universe non-fiction book/story

Martin will not release another book/story in the ASOIAF universe in his lifetime

A different fiction book/story

24

17

15

15

15

12

Will "The case for training frontier AIs on Sumeria..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.09%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) spontaneously experience bodhicitta?

Jan 4, 10:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.91%chance

888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

121

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