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Top stories

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Corpus

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32243

2599

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.39%chance

6012486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1590

670

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Sep 16, 7:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.76%chance

5310874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

885

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

463672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

573

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

Will President Trump suspend Habeas Corpus?

May 10, 1:22 PMJan 20, 2:06 PM

24.24%chance

182077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

566

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.17%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

Nov 27, 7:23 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

63%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.18%chance

214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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