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Prediction markets for COST

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

17%chance

5312798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

579

Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?

Aug 29, 5:23 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

31.81%chance

225713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

683

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44%chance

202658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

73.84%chance

151472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

988

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

221450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

If I pay for a ChatGPT pro subscription, will it make me at least its cost back in value?

Jun 19, 10:08 PMJan 1, 11:05 PM

47.31%chance

81317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

May 8, 2:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.58%chance

261257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

922

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000?

May 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.92%chance

11545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

926

Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

May 20, 10:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.48%chance

4534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

Will "The Hidden Cost of Our Lies to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 4:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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