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Prediction markets for COST

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

5613897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

605

Will GTA 6 cost 79$ or more on launch?

Sep 7, 4:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

94.45%chance

437964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3684

148

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.1%chance

242892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

88.4%chance

202776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3750

457

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.78%chance

241458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2411

1180

In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

May 8, 2:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.58%chance

261257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

922

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

May 20, 10:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

53.85%chance

6579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

926

Will PCSK9 inhibitors cost less than $2000 per year before 2029?

May 20, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

56.36%chance

4196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

880

Will "The Hidden Cost of Our Lies to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 4:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What will the USDA Moderate-Cost Food Plan be for a family of four in August 2027?

Aug 13, 5:10 AMOct 1, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Less than $1,350

$1,350–$1,399.99

$1,400–$1,449.99

$1,450–$1,499.99

$1,500–$1,549.99

$1,550 or more

17

17

17

17

17

17

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