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Prediction markets for COT

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

61105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1953

512

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

81095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

Will the Northern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) become Extinct by 2100?

Feb 11, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.74%chance

81041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1513

88

What will be the cool word for "cool" in 2032?

Sep 20, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18370

OptionProbability

6 7

Other

cool

based

sigma

spice

whale

caught

cot

retro

TRANCHE

heat

loose

gas

numb

left

sunk

cought

warm

tepid

luke

damp

jank

sweet

sick

沉着的 chénzhuóde

cloe

swag

25

25

13

13

12

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?

Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM

74.92%chance

9308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Which of these AI Safety Research Futarchy projects will get Conf Accepted, if chosen?

Sep 30, 11:38 PMSep 30, 11:29 PM

6228

OptionProbability

Goal Crystallisation

Post-training order and CoT Monitorability

Detection game

Exploring more metacognitive capabilities of LLMs

Salient features of self-models

Research sabotage dataset

Model Emulation

Model organisms resisting generalisation

Online Learning for Research Sabotage Mitigation

59

37

34

33

28

26

26

24

23

In what years will CoT monitoring fail for frontier AI?

Sep 8, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6182

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2050

2027

2026

2025

52

52

46

46

35

20

4

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will "Recent LLMs can do 2-hop and 3-hop latent (no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 10:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.53%chance

3131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

996

Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.83%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

986

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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