Council General News

Mexico's INE Drops Case Over Cash Videos Involving Pío López Obrador and Morena

1 year ago

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

110449937

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2030

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.53%chance

343134

OptionVotes

YES

2044

748

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?

Nov 5, 3:13 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

4.83%chance

141932

OptionVotes

YES

1691

930

Will Antonio Guterres obtain a third term as UN General-Secretary?

Oct 31, 10:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.1%chance

91508

OptionVotes

YES

550

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.87%chance

22827

OptionVotes

YES

1210

454

Rafael Mariano Grossi will be serving as Secretary-General of the United Nations on 1 January 2027.

Mar 26, 8:48 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

7.55%chance

7454

OptionVotes

YES

350

CDA loses 10+ seats in Dutch parliamentary election after Oct 2025?

Oct 28, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.23%chance

3356

OptionVotes

YES

1356

737

Will the UN issue a resolution condemning or endorsing solar geoengineering by 2028?

Feb 11, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19333

OptionProbability

Neither

Endorse

Condemn

What National DSA-endorsed candidates will win their elections in 2026?

Jul 18, 11:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10266

OptionProbability

Chris Gilmer-Hill, Michigan State House, District 8 (Primary)

Rashida Tlaib, MI-12 (Primary)

Donavan McKinney, MI-13 (Primary)

Robert LeVertis Bell, Kentucky State House, District 43 (General)

Andrea Parr, Louisville Metro Council, District 9 (General)

YES on Safe Homes St. Paul

Brittany Kubicek, Rhode Island House of Representatives, District 5

Cori Bush, MO-01 (Primary)

Dave Zeglen, Ann Arbor City Council, Ward 4 (Primary)

Juliana Bennett, Wisconsin State Assembly, District 76 (Primary)

Oliver Larkin, FL-25 (Primary)

Evan Mackay, Massachusetts State House, District 25 (Primary)

100

Will Kosovo become a United Nations member state by 2030?

Oct 8, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.61%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

200

If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?

Apr 22, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2230

OptionProbability

Above +1200

Above +600

Above +900

Will people have a positive opinion of the Future Circular Collider by 2030?

Apr 11, 7:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.21%chance

9108

OptionVotes

YES

240

237

Council General News

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Prediction markets for Council General

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When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?

Will Antonio Guterres obtain a third term as UN General-Secretary?

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Rafael Mariano Grossi will be serving as Secretary-General of the United Nations on 1 January 2027.

CDA loses 10+ seats in Dutch parliamentary election after Oct 2025?

Will the UN issue a resolution condemning or endorsing solar geoengineering by 2028?

What National DSA-endorsed candidates will win their elections in 2026?

Will Kosovo become a United Nations member state by 2030?

If Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?

Will people have a positive opinion of the Future Circular Collider by 2030?

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