OptionProbability
The Full Term
Between 1 and 2 Years
Between 2 and 3 Years
Between 3 and 4 Years
More than the Full Term
<1 Year
50
13
12
10
3
Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11
Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State
Be a man (cis or trans)
Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)
Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature
Be considered broadly left-wing in their country
Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent
Have been married
Have been in custody
Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area
Rule an African country
Rule a country with same-sex marriage
Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation
Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime
Come to power as the result of a coup
Be out as LGBTQIA+
Have used a prediction market
84
71
67
57
54
52
47
46
43
38
29
25
24
21
9
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1159
928
432
72
4 +
0–1
2
35
26
19
104
96
128
78