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Prediction markets for COUR

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.12%chance

12765974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21073

3663

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.73%chance

1737081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43981

7898

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.09%chance

2426356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33707

2967

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?

Sep 9, 7:51 AMSep 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

1611909

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

655

[ACX 2026] How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

348038

OptionProbability

Mixed ruling

Tariffs unlawful

Tariffs lawful

Other ruling

No 2026 ruling

43

29

24

2

2

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336719

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?

Apr 12, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.6%chance

506577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5328

1451

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

296091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6239

2225

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

72.3%chance

395390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3436

2195

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

27.78%chance

493998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

322

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.2%chance

113470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10161

9841

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