Court of Appeal News

A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

Cook resigns

Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

YES

YES

YES

NO

1 or more

2 or more

0

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

7 or more

6 or more

8 or more

9 or more

10 or more

11 or more

12 or more

13 or more

14 or more

YES

Lawsuit is settled out of court

Lawsuit over before 2029

Midjourney implements content filters to prevent copyright infringement²

Midjorney pays Disney and/or Universal⁴

Lawsuit over before 2028

Midjourney continues operations without changes at the end³

Midjourney appeals the court's decision

Lawsuit over before 2027

Midjourney agrees to licensing terms with Disney and/or Universal

NO

NO

YES

Marianne Rivoalen (Manitoba Chief Justice)

Peter Edelmann (BC Court of Appeal)

Glenn Joyal (Manitoba Court of King's Bench)

April Grosse (Alberta Court of Appeal)

Naheed Bardai (Saskatchewan Court of Appeal)

Gerald Heckman (Federal Court of Appeal)

Other