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Prediction markets for Court of Justice

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.78%chance

348101616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2426

968

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?

Mar 14, 5:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

184126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

103739

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

79

11

4

3

3

1

Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

Jan 21, 5:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.2%chance

182084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Jan 22, 8:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

171687

OptionProbability

Other

Judge James Ho

Amul Thapar

Andrew Oldham

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

Elizabeth Prelogar

46

23

15

13

1

1

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5595

OptionProbability

Clarence Thomas

Samuel Alito

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

John Roberts

Sonia Sotomayor

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

24

17

11

11

9

9

4

3

3

Will any of these senior Supreme Court Justices voluntarily retire by 2028?

Dec 12, 12:25 AMJan 11, 4:59 AM

5316

OptionProbability

Clarence Thomas (age 76 in 2024)

Samuel Alito (age 74 in 2024)

John Roberts (age 69 in 2024)

Sonia Sotomayor (age 70 in 2024)

44

33

10

4

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Dec 18, 9:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.39%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

127

Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 5:59 PMJan 1, 8:40 AM

11298

OptionProbability

Other

James Ho

J. Michelle Childs

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

Sri Srinivasan

Neomi Rao

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Elizabeth Prelogar

Barbara Lagoa

Leondra Kruger

Jane L. Kelly

Paul J. Watford

69

15

5

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?

Dec 6, 2:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.49%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

287

57

Will Elizabeth Prelogar be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 5:57 PMJan 1, 8:40 AM

29.37%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

How many Supreme Court Justices will vote in favor of Trump’s tariffs?

Jan 13, 8:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8136

OptionProbability

3

2

4

0

1

5

6

7

8

9

38

17

14

8

6

4

3

3

3

3

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