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Prediction markets for Court of Justice

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.05%chance

358109164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1876

1082

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?

Mar 14, 5:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20%chance

266731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

What will be the Republican-Democrat balance of US Supreme Court justices by the 2029 inauguration?

Jan 27, 4:01 AMJan 21, 6:59 AM

113789

OptionProbability

6-3 (balance as of 2024)

7-2

8-1

9-0

Other

5-4 or lower

73

15

5

3

3

1

When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

192929

OptionProbability

2026

2028

2027

2030

2029

Other

2025

2024

2023

2015

40

30

17

4

4

4

1

1

1

0

Who will be the next justice confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Jan 22, 8:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201901

OptionProbability

Other

Judge James Ho

Aileen Cannon

Andrew Oldham

Amul Thapar

Patrick J. Bumatay

Justice Tewtosan Tenyfor

Elizabeth Prelogar

63

19

6

5

4

2

1

1

Will any of these senior Supreme Court Justices voluntarily retire by 2028?

Dec 12, 12:25 AMJan 11, 4:59 AM

7496

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito (age 74 in 2024)

Clarence Thomas (age 76 in 2024)

John Roberts (age 69 in 2024)

Sonia Sotomayor (age 70 in 2024)

71

46

10

4

Who will be appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA at some point of their life?

Jan 13, 4:33 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6450

OptionProbability

Andrew Oldham

James Ho

Elizabeth Prelogar

Sri Srinivasan

Leondra Kruger

Paul Watford

Michelle Childs

Patricia Millett

Goodwin Liu

Kamala Harris

24

23

12

6

6

6

6

6

6

4

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Dec 18, 9:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.39%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

127

Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?

Dec 6, 2:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.49%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

287

57

Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?

Jun 15, 2:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

87.9%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

30

Will Elizabeth Prelogar be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States?

Dec 7, 5:57 PMJan 1, 8:40 AM

29.37%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

If the Supreme Court has more than 9 justices, was it because of democrats or republicans?

May 16, 4:25 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

5126

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

64

36

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