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Prediction markets for COVID

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24%chance

21974669749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20154

4193

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.61%chance

10039766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

1052

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80.27%chance

4726263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3926

1996

Where did COVID-19 come from

Sep 17, 4:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9514614

OptionProbability

Transfer at a wet market

Accidental transfer in a lab after research gain-of-function modifications

Accidental transfer in a lab with no modifications

Non-zoonotic origins

Transfer in the wild to a civilian

Transfer in the wild to a virus researcher

Planned deliberate release

Other

It does not exist / is not a new virus / 5G / aliens

Deliberate release by a rogue employee

53

38

4

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Mar 26, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

453640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

510

If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?

Jul 28, 4:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.15%chance

252416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

616

Covid a lab leak?

Sep 24, 12:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.3%chance

322191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

853

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.02%chance

391901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

734

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

Jan 11, 6:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.63%chance

321793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

981

Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?

Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

63.27%chance

261253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

436

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

Jul 16, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.02%chance

19920

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1376

688

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

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