CRA News

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

Jan 2, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13886792

OptionProbability

January

February

November

June

July

September

October

December

August

May

April

March

100

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17279484

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

54.12%chance

605068

OptionVotes

YES

1145

787

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

21844

OptionVotes

YES

9256

7401

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

121515

OptionVotes

YES

1309

764

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.35%chance

241486

OptionVotes

YES

1648

269

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Jun 1, 8:09 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

19.05%chance

51170

OptionVotes

YES

2061

485

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

YES

1068

760

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

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