CRA News

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17074531

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

Jan 2, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9233191

OptionProbability

January

February

June

July

March

April

May

August

September

October

November

December

100

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 5 released on the same day? [crazy world edition]

Feb 4, 1:07 PMFeb 11, 11:59 PM

20.19%chance

272545

OptionVotes

YES

1230

933

Will there be an official origami / paper crane emoji released by Unicode before EOY 2028?

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.94%chance

241839

OptionVotes

YES

1366

694

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.66%chance

231436

OptionVotes

YES

1598

291

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Jun 1, 8:09 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

19.05%chance

51170

OptionVotes

YES

2061

485

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.22%chance

14900

OptionVotes

YES

1553

858

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

YES

1068

760

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 5 released on the same day? [crazy world edition]

Will there be an official origami / paper crane emoji released by Unicode before EOY 2028?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

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