CRA News

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

Jan 2, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

171130222

OptionProbability

January

February

November

October

December

September

March

April

May

June

July

August

100

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17984322

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5379100

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

55.58%chance

656578

OptionVotes

YES

1176

762

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

21844

OptionVotes

YES

9256

7401

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

1359

736

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.2%chance

261561

OptionVotes

YES

1698

249

Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49%chance

6887

OptionVotes

YES

1423

1370

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

YES

1068

760

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

Will Bitcoin crash 50% in the next 2 years?

Sep 7, 10:26 AMSep 7, 10:26 AM

40.9%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Will Bitcoin crash 50% in the next 2 years?

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