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Prediction markets for CRAF

Will irrefutable evidence emerge that the first non-human origin craft was first obtained in Italy in 1933?

Jun 11, 12:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.75%chance

254092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2595

897

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.73%chance

183089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

916

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

Will a multimodal LLM be able to generate instructions for origami crafts by 2030?

Aug 29, 12:48 PMSep 5, 9:59 PM

84.59%chance

7261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

369

174

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.6%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

28

If/when humans send a mission to Alpha Centauri, will the subjective time experienced by the craft be more than 20 years?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

63.1%chance

9126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

270

163

Will NASA intentionally "crash land" a craft on Mars before 2033?

Oct 24, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.48%chance

9106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

315

Will someone craft a microplastic/plastic to be shaped exactly like Jose Luis Ricon (JLR!!!!!!!!!)by EOY 2040?

Aug 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.93%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

53

Magical Craft gets English-language release by end of 2026

Sep 16, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.54%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Exit valuation of Craftwork (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

65

39

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