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Prediction markets for Craft Ventures

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.53%chance

939854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1376

1247

Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?

Dec 31, 2:15 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.78%chance

418669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

985

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.47%chance

677189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

874

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.47%chance

446214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

839

Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

Jan 4, 5:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.9%chance

305428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1102

795

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2029?

Jan 3, 10:19 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.3%chance

435356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

662

Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?

Feb 11, 10:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.13%chance

494220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

972

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

75.05%chance

653654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1808

1031

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?

Dec 31, 11:39 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

70.49%chance

352901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

922

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

88%chance

312138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

911

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

53.59%chance

15676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

977

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