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Prediction markets for Craft Ventures

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

879045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1434

1111

Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?

Dec 31, 2:15 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.68%chance

408639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

955

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.47%chance

677189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

874

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.77%chance

426174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

907

Will a human walk on Mars before 2039?

Jan 1, 3:52 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

32.12%chance

415400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

975

Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

Jan 4, 5:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.01%chance

295352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

770

Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?

Feb 11, 10:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.69%chance

484190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

643574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

1059

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?

Dec 31, 11:39 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

70.49%chance

352901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

922

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

88%chance

312138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1348

911

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

53.59%chance

15676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

977

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