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Prediction markets for Craft Ventures

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.06%chance

838678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

1181

Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?

Dec 31, 2:15 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.68%chance

408639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

955

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2030?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50.59%chance

596513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

777

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.36%chance

416090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

891

Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?

Jan 4, 5:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.01%chance

295352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

770

Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?

Feb 11, 10:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.69%chance

484190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.91%chance

643562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1741

1054

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?

Dec 31, 11:39 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

66.51%chance

312292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

807

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2032?

Dec 30, 10:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.29%chance

271520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

696

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?

Dec 30, 3:27 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.1%chance

271427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

705

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

52.57%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

982

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