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Prediction markets for CRE
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.63%chance
401281850
OptionVotes
15578
2885
Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.11%chance
19526223
OptionVotes
1985
379
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
2.17%chance
3517355
OptionVotes
7670
470
Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?
Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
1615237
OptionProbability
16
16
16
10
9
9
5
5
5
4
4
2
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
15.93%chance
1513700
OptionVotes
21180
5941
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.46%chance
2112898
OptionVotes
13764
3641
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
68.56%chance
187360
OptionVotes
1477
677
OptionVotes
1099
941
OptionVotes
1043
960
Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?
Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.74%chance
321956
OptionVotes
6059
5939
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?
Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30.12%chance
6526
OptionVotes
3023
2156