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Top stories

France, EU End EDF Dam Dispute With New Authorization Regime

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for CRE

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.4%chance

28490246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5301

4725

Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?

Jan 25, 11:50 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

13.89%chance

9145066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24399

2624

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

19025144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

598

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.52%chance

3213321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6849

490

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15910

7208

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.17%chance

385412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

973

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.74%chance

304266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

921

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Jun 25, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Curse update released in 2025

Game is cancelled 😢

Game leaves early access in 2025

Game leaves early access in 2026

Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

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