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Prediction markets for CRE
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.89%chance
328176705
OptionVotes
5396
4954
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
3.37%chance
3514386
OptionVotes
5497
530
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
67.62%chance
13311375
OptionVotes
2266
1908
Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?
Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM
19.12%chance
1211085
OptionVotes
18565
6494
Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?
Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
118634
OptionProbability
13
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
6
4
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
67.06%chance
177310
OptionVotes
1427
701
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.68%chance
195588
OptionVotes
10173
3993
OptionVotes
1021
973
OptionVotes
1096
921
Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?
Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
35.35%chance
7876
OptionVotes
10313
9761
Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?
Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30.12%chance
6526
OptionVotes
3023
2156
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50