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Prediction markets for CREA

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.34%chance

1043825517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68392

1804

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

17.11%chance

26748776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9567

1076

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.36%chance

18925011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

510

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822675

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

32

25

16

10

6

4

3

3

1

0

0

0

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.49%chance

13211307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2132

1976

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will there be 1300 or more official Pokemon creatures on January 1st 2030?

Nov 28, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.96%chance

401641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2120

1757

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.66%chance

191588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6173

4649

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

April-June 2025

July-September 2025

October-December 2025

January-March 2026

25

25

25

25

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