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Prediction markets for CREA

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.72%chance

328176718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5424

4941

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67%chance

19025245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

544

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822758

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

31

26

16

12

6

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?

Dec 2, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.36%chance

13717253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2599

643

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

8310020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

760

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Will there be 1300 or more official Pokemon creatures on January 1st 2030?

Nov 28, 2:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.96%chance

401641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2120

1757

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

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