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[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.72%chance

328176718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5424

4941

Will Polymarket create a Token in the following year?

Jun 12, 3:03 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

3835414

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028 or later or never

2024

2025

52

23

23

1

1

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67%chance

19025245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

544

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822758

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

31

26

16

12

6

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.17%chance

11318757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1898

649

Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?

Dec 2, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.36%chance

13717253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2599

643

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

8310020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

760

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?

Dec 3, 4:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

45%chance

603882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

977

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

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