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Prediction markets for Create

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.62%chance

402281860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15588

2884

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

13.95%chance

15350635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

248

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.11%chance

19526223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

379

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

22823864

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepMind

Other

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

Elon's X.AI company

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

32

23

18

14

5

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18%chance

12020004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2776

298

Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?

Dec 2, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.82%chance

13817383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2583

654

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.26%chance

8310037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

766

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

1167407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

1079

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?

Dec 3, 4:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.4%chance

644044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

874

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

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