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Prediction markets for Create

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.87%chance

1006682407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16390

6619

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.15%chance

16150732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10883

1997

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

33.36%chance

26243164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7001

1909

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.36%chance

18925011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

510

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21422565

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

DeepSeek

The Chinese Communist Party

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

30

25

17

11

6

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?

Dec 2, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.36%chance

13717253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2599

643

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.34%chance

1086968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

962

Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?

Dec 3, 4:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

45%chance

593881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

977

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

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