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Prediction markets for Create Solutions

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

32

23

21

8

8

5

3

0

Will aging be cured by 2100?

Mar 16, 3:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

60.36%chance

454772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

767

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?

May 11, 9:49 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

61.54%chance

451827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

919

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Apr 11, 11:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.76%chance

151807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

776

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will there be multiple new US states by the end of 2030?

Oct 30, 12:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.77%chance

13581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

935

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

40.12%chance

10568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

819

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

China no propagation regulation to come into effect in July 2026?

Nov 26, 3:20 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

67.95%chance

4239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

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