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Prediction markets for Create Solutions

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.26%chance

346106670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5587

3474

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will aging be cured by 2100?

Mar 16, 3:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

60.36%chance

454772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

767

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

16.24%chance

203737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

229

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Apr 11, 11:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.56%chance

161857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

763

Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?

May 11, 9:49 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

61.54%chance

451827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

919

Will manifold introduce LLM-based spam detection by EOY 2026?

Feb 17, 2:03 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

131159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

Will there be multiple new US states by the end of 2030?

Oct 30, 12:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.89%chance

151113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

890

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

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