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Creator News

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Jan 8, 8:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.31%chance

414646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2714

70

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

171788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2481

692

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

121368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2043

892

Will Alexandra Elbakyan (creator of Sci-Hub) ever receive a Nobel Prize?

Dec 11, 12:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

8.89%chance

271091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

970

Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025?

Dec 24, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.02%chance

161039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

657

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will the first serious market creator to die ensure their outstanding markets get resolved?

Nov 14, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.56%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

958

Will Manifold market creators go on strike at any point before 2028?

May 12, 9:43 AMMay 19, 11:59 AM

14.27%chance

14227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

941

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.01%chance

10167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

957

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

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