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Prediction markets for CRED

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.15%chance

5526639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

89

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

129084

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2030-2031

2028-2029

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

15

10

9

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

3

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Brandon Sanderson be credibly accused of sex crimes by 2030?

Jan 14, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.05%chance

161589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2287

437

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.54%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

632

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.18%chance

121168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.28%chance

8636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

2372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1150

870

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

Feb 16, 2:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.36%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

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