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Prediction markets for CRED

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.14%chance

5426604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4860

89

Will X (formerly Twitter) release credit cards before EoY 2025?

Jul 24, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.48%chance

13716453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6008

839

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

30.29%chance

75041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12910

8301

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

151979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

723

Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2026

Feb 9, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.02%chance

411578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

879

Will Brandon Sanderson be credibly accused of sex crimes by 2030?

Jan 14, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.97%chance

141439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2137

468

OpenPhil's credibility will be much lower in Jan 2025 than Oct 2023

Oct 14, 5:37 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

13956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

886

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.84%chance

9896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?

Mar 7, 3:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.99%chance

14674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

953

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

6585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.19%chance

11560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

907

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