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Prediction markets for CRED

Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?

Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.15%chance

5426609

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

89

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15910

7208

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.15%chance

534183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

748

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will Brandon Sanderson be credibly accused of sex crimes by 2030?

Jan 14, 3:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.29%chance

151489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2187

457

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.5%chance

121228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

631

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.85%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

760

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.54%chance

7586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

632

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

1150

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1150

870

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