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Prediction markets for CRED

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1614737

OptionProbability

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2028-2029

2036-2037

>= 2046

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2027

2044-2045

2026

16

16

16

10

9

8

5

5

5

4

4

2

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026?

Jul 21, 7:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

151964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1738

576

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?

Aug 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.41%chance

141235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.11%chance

131218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1774

564

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.28%chance

8636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1632

613

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

908

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

Feb 16, 2:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.83%chance

8406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

747

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

2372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1150

870

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