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Prediction markets for Credibly Neutral

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.84%chance

10810788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

29

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.27%chance

575413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1994

426

Will Ben Goldhaber win his provably unpickable lock bet

Sep 21, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5%chance

274242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4358

229

Will the US attack Fordow AGAIN before 2030?

Jun 22, 6:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

10815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will anti-gravitational technology be disclosed before 2030?

Apr 4, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.43%chance

8752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1478

677

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Jul 20, 6:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.3%chance

7266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

94

Will a teardown confirm domestically-manufactured HBM in a shipping Chinese AI accelerator by end of 2027?

Jun 30, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.53%chance

470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

76

[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?

Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

321

OptionProbability

Negative

Positive

Agnostic/Neutral

38

31

31

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