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Prediction markets for Credibly Neutral

In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Dec 28, 4:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.15%chance

534183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

748

Will Ben Goldhaber win his provably unpickable lock bet

Sep 21, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.38%chance

261860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

506

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.71%chance

311318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

953

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.83%chance

25828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

919

Will the US attack Fordow AGAIN before 2030?

Jun 22, 6:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.36%chance

8505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:18 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

59.75%chance

10260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

134

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.35%chance

7196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

65

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Australia become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.51%chance

6185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

52

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will the Philippines become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.53%chance

7116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?

Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211

OptionProbability

Negative

Positive

Agnostic/Neutral

45

28

28

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