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Credibly Neutral News
Prediction markets for Credibly Neutral
Prediction markets for Credibly Neutral
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Dec 28, 4:15 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
50.27%
chance
51
3908
Option
Votes
YES
NO
954
922
Will Ben Goldhaber win his provably unpickable lock bet
Sep 21, 2:27 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24%
chance
24
1659
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1780
562
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:11 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
75.73%
chance
27
1148
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1139
934
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:17 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
27.02%
chance
24
814
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1216
900
Will the US attack Fordow AGAIN before 2030?
Jun 22, 6:32 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
58.02%
chance
7
260
Option
Votes
NO
YES
118
85
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will South Korea become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
56.79%
chance
9
250
Option
Votes
YES
NO
161
120
If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?
Dec 17, 1:09 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
82.9%
chance
6
195
Option
Votes
NO
YES
217
64
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Australia become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:15 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
38.51%
chance
6
185
Option
Votes
YES
NO
155
52
If China tries to invade Taiwan, will the Philippines become militarily involved?
Dec 17, 2:22 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
61.53%
chance
7
116
Option
Votes
NO
YES
153
65
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