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Prediction markets for Credit

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026?

Jul 21, 7:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

151964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1738

576

Trump caps credit card interest at 10% by EOY?

Jan 10, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.23%chance

151479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

666

117

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Mar 17, 4:27 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

14.44%chance

81337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

568

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

Feb 16, 2:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.83%chance

8406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

747

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

2372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1150

870

Which of the Western countries will first implement a social credit system or a similar digital gulag institution?

Sep 1, 2:57 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

7313

OptionProbability

United States

United Kingdom

Australia

Denmark

Germany

Canada

Czech Republic

Estonia

Greece

Latvia

Norway

Austria

Belgium

France

Iceland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Spain

Sweden

None by 2100

Switzerland

10

9

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

Will any agency downgrade the US government's credit rating to AA- or lower before the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 12:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

6142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

85

Will Kraken release a credit or debit card by the end of 2027?

Oct 18, 6:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.73%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will more than 50 percent of IRA Sections 45, 45Y, 48 and 48E tax credits be cut by EOY2027

Jul 15, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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