Credit News

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

15910

7208

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.71%chance

214526

OptionVotes

YES

3055

328

Trump caps credit card interest at 10% by EOY?

Jan 10, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.94%chance

131374

OptionVotes

YES

561

134

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Mar 17, 4:27 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

17.01%chance

81087

OptionVotes

YES

2033

614

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

1846

568

Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?

Jan 21, 7:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.05%chance

11384

OptionVotes

YES

363

🛃Tax Committee: Which taxes & credits within Manifold will Manifold approve of? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 18, 12:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8205

OptionProbability

giving creators half of transaction fee

A tax on attention - markets that are more visible throughout Manifold's interface would have a higher portion of the participation fee burned

fees on realized profit

wealth tax

unique trader bonus

fees on each transaction

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

1150

OptionProbability

YES

1150

870

Will Jose Luis Ricon be credited with a kill assist by 2050

May 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will more than 50 percent of IRA Sections 45, 45Y, 48 and 48E tax credits be cut by EOY2027

Jul 15, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit be cut in at least half by 2027?

Jul 15, 12:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Credit News

Prediction markets for Credit

Prediction markets for Credit

Prediction markets for Credit

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Trump caps credit card interest at 10% by EOY?

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?

🛃Tax Committee: Which taxes & credits within Manifold will Manifold approve of? [ADD RESPONSES]

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Will Jose Luis Ricon be credited with a kill assist by 2050

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will more than 50 percent of IRA Sections 45, 45Y, 48 and 48E tax credits be cut by EOY2027

Will Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit be cut in at least half by 2027?

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