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Prediction markets for Crime
Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3%chance
7647173
OptionVotes
3154
1257
Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM
59.86%chance
35730149
OptionVotes
2264
2144
Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025
Feb 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10.79%chance
4421879
OptionVotes
21175
7616
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
92.38%chance
11314826
OptionVotes
6748
407
One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025
Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.13%chance
2813985
OptionVotes
20852
5932
OptionVotes
1676
597
Will Trump pardon crimes related to deceiving the public about UFO's before 2026?
Jan 27, 3:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
10%chance
52572
OptionVotes
2767
100
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
73.84%chance
151472
OptionVotes
1936
988
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than a billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
86.78%chance
221450
OptionVotes
2411
1180
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
28.12%chance
121007
OptionVotes
1703
1017
Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?
May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.26%chance
29722
OptionVotes
2372
1816
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?
Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM
60.73%chance
18676
OptionVotes
1740
1045