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Prediction markets for Crisis Group

Will the IDF kill more of Hamas's October 7th hostages than Hamas does?

Oct 20, 5:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.79%chance

9517887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3503

343

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

Dec 9, 3:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

313239

OptionProbability

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Other

Iran

Poland

Canada

Ukraine

Sweden

Japan

Brazil

Argentina

Germany

Australia

Taiwan

Turkey

N/A

22

12

11

10

9

8

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will internal armed conflict in Myanmar end before 2030?

Oct 28, 3:44 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.41%chance

11482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

132

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Is collective human ethical behavior possible on big tasks?

Jun 14, 12:33 PM

120

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