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Top stories

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support

US Domestic Policy

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and 2025 Budget Rollback Threaten Medicaid for 650,000 in NC and Mental Health Services Including 988 LGBTQ+ Support

Authors

7

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Crisis

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.49%chance

14844993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2115

209

Will the 2024 US presidential election trigger a constitutional crisis?

Feb 21, 9:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.02%chance

6522304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10427

140

Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?

Nov 14, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.69%chance

879641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1775

1245

Will any OECD country undergo a sovereign debt crisis by end of 2025?

Sep 29, 1:08 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.32%chance

142264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

876

Will there be a banking crisis in the United States before the midterms?

Mar 4, 5:43 PMOct 5, 6:59 AM

28.25%chance

121872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1594

627

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

Is Russia accelerating the climate crisis?

Feb 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.77%chance

121367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

956

Will the Fertility Crisis be solved by Fertility Technology ( Artificial Wombs, Embryo Selection, Robot Nannies etc.)

Mar 16, 2:27 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45%chance

20876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

967

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Mar 6, 6:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11762

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2026

2025

2030

2024

2022

2023

2027

2029

43

37

7

6

4

1

0

0

0

0

Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis

Feb 10, 10:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10282

OptionProbability

Trump wins: Constitutional Crisis

Trump loses: Constitutional Crisis

84

55

Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

Mar 29, 1:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.32%chance

9109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

164

Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?

Dec 16, 8:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.08%chance

433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

90

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