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Chile
World
José Antonio Kast Leads Chilean Race with 30% Vote, Ahead of Jara by 13 Points in Cadem Runoff Poll
Authors
4
1 year ago
Prediction markets for Criteria
Prediction markets for Criteria
[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
Jul 8, 2:52 PM
Jan 2, 7:00 PM
60.61%
chance
20
4980
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1241
806
Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?
Jun 29, 7:02 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
87.24%
chance
12
1116
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1049
601
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Aug 3, 1:45 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
78.43%
chance
18
1009
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1538
789
OpenAI Goes Broke before 2033 (See criteria)
Mar 14, 8:36 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
25%
chance
9
963
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1732
577
Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?
Jun 6, 6:16 AM
Sep 9, 9:59 PM
19.44%
chance
5
283
Option
Votes
YES
NO
204
49
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
Aug 3, 10:19 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
38%
chance
10
183
Option
Votes
NO
YES
152
136
Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?
Mar 7, 12:56 PM
Jan 1, 11:00 AM
24.48%
chance
2
182
Option
Votes
YES
NO
108
48
Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria
Mar 19, 3:21 AM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
50%
chance
19
150
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1008
992
Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving?
Apr 1, 11:01 AM
72
0
Which market about the Wikipedia campaign to redefine the concept of sex has clearer resolution criteria?
Nov 24, 7:16 AM
7
0
Criteria suggestions for a deterministic chess bot
Nov 27, 2:08 AM
0
0
Should a market be halted when a major discussion on resolution criteria takes place?
Aug 26, 11:24 AM
Apr 19, 3:59 PM
48
0
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