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Top stories

José Antonio Kast Leads Chilean Race with 30% Vote, Ahead of Jara by 13 Points in Cadem Runoff Poll

José Antonio Kast Leads Chilean Race with 30% Vote, Ahead of Jara by 13 Points in Cadem Runoff Poll

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Criteria

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

Jul 2, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.12%chance

22089937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16786

850

[Metaculus] Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

Jul 8, 2:52 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

58.63%chance

194930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)

Nov 8, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

111349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

16

Will Aaron Bergman find a job matching his criteria by EOY2025?

Oct 15, 2:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

6982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 1:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.26%chance

16794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

855

Will Harvard be known to have applied race conscious admissions criteria between the 2023-2024 AY and 2028?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.75%chance

12365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1349

957

Will the Research Domain Criteria term return more than 50,000 results on Web of Science core collection, on 01/01/2030?

Mar 7, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

24.48%chance

2182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

48

Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

Aug 3, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.85%chance

10178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

145

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 12/12/2025?

Sep 9, 6:58 AMDec 12, 10:59 PM

14.39%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Mar 19, 3:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

19150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Which market about the Wikipedia campaign to redefine the concept of sex has clearer resolution criteria?

Nov 24, 7:16 AM

60

Is it ok to trade on your own market (objective criteria) right before resolving?

Apr 1, 11:01 AM

720

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