Crowded News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Canada survives group stage

Trump still alive at end of final match

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Neymar plays in a match

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Players cleat falls off their foot

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Asian player misses penalty kick

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Messi gets a yellow card

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Asian player gets the red card

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

No red cards issued in the Final match

US goes further than Mexico

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Freddy attends the final match

Messi to score a free kick

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Team loses after leading 2-0

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Elon Musk attends match

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Any host nation in quarter final

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Player tears their ACL

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Flares in stands during match in USA

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Betting scandal reported

Spain goes further than France

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Goal scored within 1st minute

VAR overturns second yellow card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Any match is canceled or postponed

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

5+ hat tricks

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Team captain gets red card

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Winning team has a foreign manager

Bald person gets the red card

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Messi scores on every game he plays

Ronaldo does not start

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Salt Bae attending a match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

England loses on penalties

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Fans invade field during match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

King Charles attends match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Asia team reaches semi final

Football is coming home?

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Major security incident

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

15+ cards in any match

Player bit during match

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player shits in the pants during match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player dies during World Cup

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

YES

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

2027

NO