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Prediction markets for Crown

Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown?

Jan 21, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6133163

OptionProbability

Other

@Bayesian

Eliza

@SemioticRivalry

@Joshua

@jacksonpolack

@EvanDaniel

@Ziddletwix

@realDonaldTrump

@ItsMe

@geuber

@SuryaVino

72

9

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Who will first buy the Manifold Crown?

Jan 21, 6:10 AMJun 1, 5:06 AM

5314523

OptionProbability

Other

@Bayesian

@AmmonLam

@SemioticRivalry

@10thOfficial

@Joshua

@mckiev

@jacksonpolack

@SG

@ItsMe

@realDonaldTrump

@Eliza

@Ziddletwix

@brod

@Tumbles

48

12

9

7

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2026?

Jun 26, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.41%chance

7414219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

614

Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2026?

May 19, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

1310024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

Apr 4, 12:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

87.5%chance

303175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2575

261

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.22%chance

22109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2964

337

Is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the BEAST of Revelation? Yes or no.

Apr 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

101641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

18

Will Trump Wear a Crown?

Aug 20, 9:48 AMAug 20, 9:47 AM

31%chance

351052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

137

Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom?

Dec 27, 12:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.85%chance

17831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

920

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

666

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Supergirl

Clayface

51

22

10

10

7

Which upcoming 2026 horror movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Feb 22, 11:21 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

430

OptionProbability

Other

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Werwulf

The Bride!

Scream 7

Obsession

Resident Evil

34

30

7

7

7

7

7

Will the black crowned night heron, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2040?

Nov 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Yes

No

58

42

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