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Prediction markets for Crown

Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown?

Jan 21, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6133163

OptionProbability

Other

@Bayesian

Eliza

@SemioticRivalry

@Joshua

@jacksonpolack

@EvanDaniel

@Ziddletwix

@realDonaldTrump

@ItsMe

@geuber

@SuryaVino

72

9

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2026?

Jun 26, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.97%chance

7714526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1927

530

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.22%chance

22109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2964

337

Is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the BEAST of Revelation? Yes or no.

Apr 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

101641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

18

Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2027?

May 17, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.67%chance

61625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2625

381

Will Trump Wear a Crown?

Aug 20, 9:48 AMAug 20, 9:47 AM

19.11%chance

351080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

161

Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom?

Dec 27, 12:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.85%chance

17831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

920

Which upcoming 2026 horror movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Feb 22, 11:21 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

10213

OptionProbability

Obsession

Other

Werwulf

Resident Evil

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

The Bride!

Scream 7

39

30

9

9

6

4

4

Any of the UK Crown Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.57%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

70

Location of next non-BIOT land to leave the United Kingdom, its overseas territories, or crown dependencies?

Sep 19, 9:42 PMDec 31, 2:52 PM

3127

OptionProbability

Europe (including Cyprus)

Atlantic Ocean (excluding the British Isles or Gibraltar)

Caribbean

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Cyprus

67

41

34

25

25

18

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

798

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Supergirl

Clayface

65

15

8

6

5

Will the black crowned night heron, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2040?

Nov 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Yes

No

58

42

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