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Crown News

Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown?

Jan 21, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5829905

OptionProbability

Other

Eliza

@Bayesian

@SemioticRivalry

@Joshua

@jacksonpolack

@EvanDaniel

@Ziddletwix

@realDonaldTrump

@ItsMe

@geuber

66

15

8

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2026?

Jun 26, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.32%chance

7312445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

551

Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2026?

May 19, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.49%chance

133357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3283

305

Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

Apr 4, 12:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

80.59%chance

302673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

355

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.22%chance

22109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2964

337

Is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the BEAST of Revelation? Yes or no.

Apr 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

101641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

18

Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom?

Dec 27, 12:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.85%chance

17831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

920

Will any of Trump's descendents be crowned?

Feb 22, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

13516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Location of next non-BIOT land to leave the United Kingdom, its overseas territories, or crown dependencies?

Sep 19, 9:42 PMDec 31, 2:52 PM

3127

OptionProbability

Europe (including Cyprus)

Atlantic Ocean (excluding the British Isles or Gibraltar)

Caribbean

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Cyprus

67

41

34

25

25

18

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

556

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Supergirl

Clayface

41

26

12

12

8

Which upcoming 2026 horror movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Feb 22, 11:21 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

430

OptionProbability

Other

Werwulf

The Bride!

Scream 7

Obsession

Resident Evil

51

10

10

10

10

10

Will the black crowned night heron, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2040?

Nov 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Yes

No

58

42

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