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Prediction markets for Crown

Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown?

Jan 21, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6333421

OptionProbability

Other

@Bayesian

Eliza

@SemioticRivalry

@Joshua

@jacksonpolack

@EvanDaniel

@Ziddletwix

@realDonaldTrump

@ItsMe

@geuber

@SuryaVino

66

13

6

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Prince William be crowned King by the end of 2026?

Jun 26, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.73%chance

8515832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2617

408

Who will first buy the Manifold Crown?

Jan 21, 6:10 AMDec 31, 6:06 AM

5614660

OptionProbability

Other

@Bayesian

@AmmonLam

@SemioticRivalry

@10thOfficial

@Joshua

@mckiev

@jacksonpolack

@SG

@ItsMe

@realDonaldTrump

@Ziddletwix

@brod

@Tumbles

@Eliza

48

12

9

7

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

5.98%chance

33109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3964

252

Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2027?

May 17, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.66%chance

71627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2627

381

Will Trump Wear a Crown?

Aug 20, 9:48 AMAug 20, 9:47 AM

19.11%chance

351080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

161

Will Russell Brand be found not guilty of all charges in his current Southwark Crown Court trial?

Oct 14, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

7958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will William, Prince of Wales ever be crowned King of the United Kingdom?

Dec 27, 12:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.85%chance

17831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

920

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8341

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Supergirl

Clayface

72

13

11

2

1

Any of the UK Crown Jewels is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

Aug 31, 4:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.57%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

70

Location of next non-BIOT land to leave the United Kingdom, its overseas territories, or crown dependencies?

Sep 19, 9:42 PMDec 31, 2:52 PM

3127

OptionProbability

Europe (including Cyprus)

Atlantic Ocean (excluding the British Isles or Gibraltar)

Caribbean

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Cyprus

67

41

34

25

25

18

Will the black crowned night heron, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2040?

Nov 2, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Yes

No

58

42

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