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Top stories

Zack Sabre Jr. Retains IWGP Title at Forbidden Door Featuring Tanahashi’s Final UK Cage Match and Key Title Defenses

Zack Sabre Jr. Retains IWGP Title at Forbidden Door Featuring Tanahashi’s Final UK Cage Match and Key Title Defenses

Authors

3

4 months ago

Prediction markets for CRU

Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?

May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.4%chance

636988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1863

559

Will Tom Cruise go to Space by 2027?

Jan 25, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.44%chance

846528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

845

Will Tom Cruise be making Mission Impossible movies in his eighties?

Jul 5, 7:37 PMJul 2, 10:59 PM

26.56%chance

28979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

812

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

By 2026, will crude steel production outside China be at least 8% higher than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:17 AMAug 11, 10:59 PM

42%chance

6477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

China's crude steel production in 2027 at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Nov 26, 5:37 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

55.12%chance

7440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

902

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

By the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?

Nov 26, 5:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

4177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will world crude steel production in 2026 be at least 1,880 million tonnes?

Nov 26, 5:16 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

52.39%chance

279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will "LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 8:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Global iron + steel slag intensity ≥ 0.31 tonnes per tonne of crude steel in 2026?

Nov 26, 5:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.72%chance

135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

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