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Top stories

NJPW and AEW Host August 24 Forbidden Door at London O2 With Tanahashi’s Final UK Match and Multiple Title Defenses

NJPW and AEW Host August 24 Forbidden Door at London O2 With Tanahashi’s Final UK Match and Multiple Title Defenses

Authors

3

1 day ago

Prediction markets for CRU

Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?

May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.19%chance

606735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1621

634

Will Tom Cruise go to Space by 2027?

Jan 25, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.44%chance

846528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

845

Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee, in 2025?

Feb 18, 3:40 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

3.7%chance

54101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5101

196

Will Tom Cruise be making Mission Impossible movies in his eighties?

Jul 5, 7:37 PMJul 2, 10:59 PM

26.56%chance

28979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

812

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Will Ted Cruz (American politician and attorney) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 30, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.16%chance

13489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

937

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

Will a new cruciferous vegetable be patented by 2030?

Aug 25, 10:21 AMJan 1, 9:05 AM

78%chance

5160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

109

Tom Cruise is the effective leader of the church of scientology before 2031

Jul 13, 1:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.51%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

112

Will "LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 8:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth?

Jun 25, 5:46 AMJun 20, 3:59 AM

56.46%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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