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Top stories

Retailers Slash Gadget Prices by Up to 55% in Back-to-School Push

Retailers Slash Gadget Prices by Up to 55% in Back-to-School Push

Authors

14

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Crucial

Will humans return to the Moon in 2026?

Dec 30, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

93.47%chance

6813784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3785

265

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

823

What is the one piece?

Feb 26, 5:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

362882

OptionProbability

Knowledge about the Void Century

Something else

Ancient Weapon from the Void Century

Bink's Sake

Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world

A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger

The devil fruit tree

Time travel device

All Blue

The rope seem in the logo

Nothing

76

71

63

57

52

43

41

40

36

22

18

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.44%chance

10671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

604

70

Is “reasoning” mostly elicitation?

Dec 4, 11:45 AMDec 5, 11:34 AM

40.47%chance

12631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2543

765

Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?

Nov 16, 4:36 PMNov 17, 7:59 AM

90.35%chance

8192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252

138

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

48.19%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

8142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

289

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.59%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

Will my new MTG format remain alive for the next month?

Jan 9, 4:24 PMMar 9, 7:00 PM

50.25%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

What is the crucial bottleneck holding back nuclear (fission) power?

Nov 14, 8:28 PM

270

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