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Prediction markets for Crucial
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.67%chance
569741
OptionVotes
1959
510
OptionProbability
79
68
66
63
59
57
53
40
36
22
18
OptionVotes
1235
806
Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?
Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
54.61%chance
281702
OptionVotes
1032
938
Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?
May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM
37.78%chance
11875
OptionVotes
1283
779
Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.44%chance
10671
OptionVotes
604
70
OptionVotes
1232
812
Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?
Nov 16, 4:36 PMNov 17, 7:59 AM
90.35%chance
8192
OptionVotes
252
138
OptionVotes
1155
866
Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
19.5%chance
8142
OptionVotes
458
289
OptionVotes
1106
904