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Prediction markets for Cruise

[Metaculus] On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Apr 3, 11:02 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

1%chance

710147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1619

23

Will Ukraine use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack the Kerch Bridge?

May 13, 1:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.4%chance

636988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1863

559

Will Tom Cruise go to Space by 2027?

Jan 25, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.44%chance

846528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1292

845

Will Cruise re-obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2025

Apr 10, 7:56 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

1%chance

61349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

15

Will Tom Cruise be making Mission Impossible movies in his eighties?

Jul 5, 7:37 PMJul 2, 10:59 PM

26.56%chance

28979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

812

Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 9:34 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

7.61%chance

22894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

29

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.72%chance

6380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1459

987

Will Tom Cruise win another Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor Oscar by 2030?

Feb 24, 5:21 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

20.21%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

47

Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2026?

Nov 1, 9:35 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

63.7%chance

8164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

75

At what market cap will Cruise exit?

Sep 6, 8:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66%chance

597

OptionProbability

YES

NO

184

73

Will OceanSky Cruises perform a commercial flight in 2025?

Jun 20, 11:18 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.9%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

22

Travolta or Cruise leaves Scientology

Jan 24, 10:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.17%chance

564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

102

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