CSIS News

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

YES

139

Sep 9, 4:27 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.78%chance

9105

OptionVotes

YES

119

Oct 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

244

OptionProbability

US or Israel attacks Pickaxe Mountain before Dec 15, 2026

Will US and/or Israeli military strikes hit at least 20 distinct bridges in Iran between Nov 8 and December 31, 2026?

Will Iran hit a hyperscaler data center in the Gulf before 2027?

Will all Iran–Iraq land border crossings close to commercial freight simultaneously for 48+ hours before Dec 31, 2026?

Will US/Israeli strikes cause a nationwide or multi-province power blackout in Iran lasting at least 24 hours before 2027?

Prediction markets for CSIS