OptionVotes
YES
NO
2102
476
OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
1013
926
1264
921
Oil blockade, regime stays
Oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime changes
No oil blockade, regime stays
90
7
287
187
54
188
53
