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Prediction markets for Current

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

Nov 15, 6:24 AMNov 12, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

4268017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37912

6945

Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?

Nov 24, 12:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.58%chance

11625082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1888

869

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

12722519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2748

266

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.05%chance

9512459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

544

Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?

Jun 17, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

98.6%chance

411261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7940

75

Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky?

Jul 28, 2:56 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

61.06%chance

11110365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2009

605

Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?

Jul 1, 11:53 AMJul 8, 11:53 AM

1069338

OptionProbability

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Bill Clinton

George Bush

Barack Obama

Other

54

27

9

6

2

1

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.93%chance

823422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

1270

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.79%chance

152721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4920

2177

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90%chance

112412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

32

In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

May 8, 2:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.58%chance

261257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

922

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