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Prediction markets for Current

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

Nov 15, 6:24 AMNov 12, 7:59 AM

3.79%chance

4582994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43134

6722

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

12956322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1866

841

Will Mitch McConnell complete his current term as Senator from Kentucky?

Jul 28, 2:56 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

81.56%chance

19937991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2801

299

Will US obesity be half or less of the current rate in 2050?

Nov 24, 12:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.78%chance

11725132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1938

845

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.69%chance

9612469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1801

554

Will the Kouprey (Bos sauveli) become extinct in the current century?

Jun 17, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

98.6%chance

511264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7943

75

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.25%chance

257899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12989

7710

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.12%chance

363426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

502

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.93%chance

823422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

1270

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.27%chance

162821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5020

2151

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

32

In 10 years, will the USA have an average cost of electricity below 1/10th of its current price?

May 8, 2:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.58%chance

261257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

922

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