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Prediction markets for Customer AI

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

Mar 2, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.15%chance

385548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3706

406

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.88%chance

233352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3420

292

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.08%chance

241733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

921

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will the Anthropic-Blackstone enterprise AI services firm name its first customer by Sept 30, 2026?

May 5, 6:40 PMSep 30, 10:00 PM

86%chance

12709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

21

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.63%chance

18702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

917

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

61.13%chance

13323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

944

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

11264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

AI custom clothes design and tailoring service before 2033

Apr 19, 11:27 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45.32%chance

6144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

143

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

40

29

23

8

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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