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Prediction markets for Customs

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

Mar 2, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.15%chance

385548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3706

406

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10073

9882

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.83%chance

202800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2870

348

Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.77%chance

342727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2416

772

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

211899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

818

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

835

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?

Jul 6, 4:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.05%chance

91047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

499

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.63%chance

18702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

917

Will most of Apple's U.S. customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 2:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.35%chance

13428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

714

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

61.13%chance

13323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

944

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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