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Prediction markets for Customs

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.25%chance

9027636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6587

152

Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?

Feb 15, 11:05 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

35.56%chance

3511549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

743

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.03%chance

507121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4150

638

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.93%chance

102912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

499

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

131631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.83%chance

321454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

849

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

928

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

71174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.79%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

969

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

58.96%chance

12268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

980

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