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Prediction markets for Customs

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.2%chance

2910792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16061

5454

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

Mar 2, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.15%chance

385548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3706

406

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

264385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

300

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.45%chance

342735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2521

765

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?

Jul 6, 4:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.54%chance

101297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2253

444

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.07%chance

18952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1579

879

Will customer service employment fall >5% in 2026?

Oct 26, 7:08 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

61.28%chance

11651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

61.13%chance

13323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

944

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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