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Prediction markets for Customs

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7915760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

505971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

768

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

Mar 2, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

89.37%chance

364369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2781

492

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?

Feb 15, 11:05 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

11.09%chance

153030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2832

353

Will GPT-5 be able to GM a session of my custom TTRPG to my satisfaction?

Jun 11, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.97%chance

252531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.83%chance

321454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

849

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

928

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.79%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

969

Will most of Apple's U.S. customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 2:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.35%chance

13428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

714

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

58.96%chance

12268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

980

Will Starship point-to-point fly commercial customers before 2030?

Feb 11, 6:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.52%chance

10266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

960

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