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Prediction markets for Customs Department

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

363271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

602309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41%chance

382208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

836

313

Will ICE agents enforce immigration control while at 2026 winter olympics in Milan, Italy?

Jan 27, 9:03 PMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

7.17%chance

72147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2993

694

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will ICE, including CBP, be involved in violent activities at the 2026 Super Bowl?

Jan 29, 6:04 PMFeb 9, 12:00 AM

26%chance

241467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

Jan 29, 5:06 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

28%chance

21533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will Congress fund the Department of Homeland Security by February 13?

Feb 4, 2:30 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM

39.63%chance

5437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

810

Do the Walk for Peace Monks arrive in Washington DC and appear in photos with Trump?

Jan 3, 8:58 PMDec 31, 8:57 PM

15.59%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles be charged with a federal crime for interfering with ICE before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.21%chance

2106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

ICE on ice?

Jan 30, 12:41 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

62.34%chance

589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

78

Was the fire in the substation in SF on 12/20 caused by the real (currently unknown) problem?

Dec 22, 3:05 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

75.49%chance

586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

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