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Prediction markets for CYBER

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.01%chance

3519387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24774

4036

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.71%chance

291985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

619

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

620

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will an OSS project stop taking donations due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.95%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

87

Will a company retract an OSS project due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

64

Will a United States Cyber Force or Cyber Corp stand up before February 1, 2029?

Feb 2, 2:17 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.66%chance

8195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

163

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

34

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.93%chance

3177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

42

Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2027?

Sep 11, 11:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

16.68%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

155

Will there be a Global Cyber Pandemic or Warfare by 2030?

Nov 11, 11:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

94

Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?

Apr 15, 9:13 AMJul 2, 4:30 AM

72.97%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

74

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