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Prediction markets for Cyber Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1782

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

605139

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Other

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Nanotech

Other biotech/bioweapon

Nuclear war

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Drones or other macro robots

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Chemical weapons

21

14

12

10

9

6

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

413580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2081

481

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.53%chance

251478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

679

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

16.45%chance

16968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

34

If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?

May 6, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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