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Prediction markets for Cyber Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

16.75%chance

708876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4766

1407

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

625332

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Other

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Drones or other macro robots

Chemical weapons

24

14

11

9

9

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.76%chance

413580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2081

481

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.81%chance

281645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

796

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

12.57%chance

181456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?

May 14, 8:16 AMOct 1, 7:00 AM

51%chance

9345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

88

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029?

Aug 4, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.22%chance

434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

38

Conditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?

Aug 12, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18

OptionProbability

critical utilities (electric grid, water, oil/gas pipelines)

internet/telecom

financial system

other (includes transportation, supply chain, healthcare, manufacturing)

37

21

21

21

If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?

May 6, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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