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Prediction markets for Cyber Infrastructure

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

10.48%chance

7310686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6576

1130

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

689637

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Chemical weapons

Drones or other macro robots

17

15

11

10

10

8

8

6

4

3

3

3

2

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

423688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1911

523

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.81%chance

281645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

796

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

694

Will Venezuela retaliate?

Jan 5, 4:29 PMDec 31, 4:29 PM

11.05%chance

181476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external?

May 6, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029?

Aug 4, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.87%chance

536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

40

Conditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?

Aug 12, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

225

OptionProbability

internet/telecom

critical utilities (electric grid, water, oil/gas pipelines)

financial system

other (includes transportation, supply chain, healthcare, manufacturing)

33

29

21

16

Will Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?

Sep 27, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:30 AM

11%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

91

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