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Prediction markets for Cybersecurity

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Jun 27, 1:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.82%chance

125959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4024

248

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

620

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

81068

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

84

3

3

3

3

3

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

12981

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Government / defence

60

13

11

6

5

5

Will cybersecurity be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

10206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

122

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

36.05%chance

16203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

977

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Jun 1, 4:46 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

80.41%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

110

Will Manifold Markets (or its web host) partner with Project Glasswing to bolster its own cybersecurity by EOY2026?

Apr 7, 8:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

7109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will "Models finding software vulnerabilities is no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 14, 11:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.32%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

977

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