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Prediction markets for Daily News

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

Will Bitcoin experience a successful 51% attack by 2032-11-29?

Nov 30, 12:29 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM

5.34%chance

2510374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11114

6782

When will Bryan Johnson die?

Jan 7, 6:36 PMMar 4, 2:59 AM

199266

OptionProbability

Before 2300

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2090

Before 2080

Before 2070

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2026

95

94

93

92

82

56

36

21

17

7

0

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

384018

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Earbuds

Other

Pen

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

72

14

10

4

0

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

Feb 10, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.64%chance

182956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3182

1443

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

83.04%chance

331727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

926

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically for any purpose by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 12:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.17%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

100

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2027?

Dec 24, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

5251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.65%chance

7135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Daily distribution ETF by end of 2026?

Oct 26, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

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