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Prediction markets for DAT

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

323462707

OptionProbability

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-04

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-05

Before 2026-02-06

47

41

23

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

132126522

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-06-30 / June 30, 2026

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

100

72

39

23

16

8

7

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5073832

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

71

16

0

0

0

Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMJun 30, 5:18 PM

32.03%chance

13121661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

687

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.52%chance

2312797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

648

Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?

May 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.03%chance

1309194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2054

1567

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will there be an airstrike on a datacenter before 2035?

Mar 30, 3:43 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.61%chance

707369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

388

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

68

8

7

7

7

0

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163560

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Silksong Sea of Sorrow Release Date

Apr 27, 11:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Oct 2026

Nov 2026

Dec 2026 or later

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

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