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Prediction markets for Data

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

36.12%chance

15173304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2118

667

Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?

Dec 15, 3:47 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.79%chance

12040642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

857

Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?

Jan 26, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.62%chance

235281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12064

8138

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

Jun 21, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.37%chance

153230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1977

506

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025?

Mar 1, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.55%chance

201635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

267

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Trump administration publishes fake economic data?

May 5, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:55 PM

45.79%chance

21471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

942

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

Will there be 500 or more Notifiable Data Breaches reported in Australia between 1 July and 31 December 2025?

Jan 2, 2:38 AMMay 30, 1:59 PM

59.02%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

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