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Prediction markets for Data

Did DOGE cause a data breach during 2025?

Feb 7, 3:17 AMJun 30, 5:18 PM

10%chance

12519566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

225135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.12%chance

191260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

570

Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?

Jun 26, 6:46 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

44.43%chance

18840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

894

Trump administration publishes fake economic data?

May 5, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:55 PM

40.58%chance

23721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

849

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.74%chance

7714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

846

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028

Feb 14, 5:07 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

3325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

760

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