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Prediction markets for Data

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1614737

OptionProbability

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2028-2029

2036-2037

>= 2046

2038-2039

2040-2041

2042-2043

2027

2044-2045

2026

16

16

16

10

9

8

5

5

5

4

4

2

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.3%chance

318258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

708

Will studyofus.com (Aella's face-ranking site) have a serious data leak before 2027?

Sep 2, 4:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.22%chance

114475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4067

684

Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?

Apr 28, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.32%chance

773829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

959

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

34.93%chance

392670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

1087

Will iDenfy leak user identification data by 2027-12-31?

Apr 9, 8:57 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10.12%chance

71980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2980

336

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

231701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1734

365

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.23%chance

111008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Trump administration publishes fake economic data?

May 5, 5:59 PMJan 1, 6:55 PM

40.58%chance

23721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

849

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:32 AMJun 23, 4:59 AM

41.5%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

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