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Prediction markets for Data and Services

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029

Oct 31, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.54%chance

2312712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

601

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.26%chance

597484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3407

2480

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

626

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.32%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

644

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Which will be the first country to nationalize an Amazon Web Services data center?

Apr 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18701

OptionProbability

None by 2030

Other

China (PRC)

Argentina

Bahrain

Poland

69

20

8

1

1

1

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

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