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Prediction markets for Data Center

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?

Dec 15, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.98%chance

307955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

436

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.38%chance

225185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

709

Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?

Sep 20, 2:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.12%chance

333974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1692

591

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?

Dec 19, 11:57 PMJan 1, 11:47 PM

17.48%chance

141583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

1052

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.74%chance

7714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

846

Will Anthropic cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers before 2028?

Feb 12, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.83%chance

4655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1422

136

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

4505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

733

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

851

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