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Top stories

53% of GOP Voters Support Trump Running for Constitutionally Prohibited Third Term in 2028 Amid Mixed Approval Ratings

53% of GOP Voters Support Trump Running for Constitutionally Prohibited Third Term in 2028 Amid Mixed Approval Ratings

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Data for Progress

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.5%chance

9317056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

90.53%chance

267542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3093

323

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.21%chance

171805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.41%chance

12820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

64.73%chance

10694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

738

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.23%chance

9684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

976

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.87%chance

11605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

62.71%chance

8477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

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