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Prediction markets for Data for Progress
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?
Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
45.81%chance
10421639
OptionVotes
1088
919
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?
Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
91.79%chance
277792
OptionVotes
3343
299
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.07%chance
347402
OptionVotes
1458
688
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
72.71%chance
332036
OptionVotes
1534
660
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?
Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
50.21%chance
171805
OptionVotes
1004
996
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
28.12%chance
251306
OptionVotes
1669
510
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?
May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
50.41%chance
12820
OptionVotes
1008
992
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?
May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
64.73%chance
10694
OptionVotes
1355
738
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?
May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
51.23%chance
9684
OptionVotes
1025
976
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?
May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
55.87%chance
11605
OptionVotes
1125
889
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?
May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
62.71%chance
8477
OptionVotes
1297
771