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Top stories

53% of GOP Voters Support Trump Running for Constitutionally Prohibited Third Term in 2028 Amid Mixed Approval Ratings

53% of GOP Voters Support Trump Running for Constitutionally Prohibited Third Term in 2028 Amid Mixed Approval Ratings

Authors

9

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Data for Progress

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.49%chance

505483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.97%chance

184299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

655

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.74%chance

161655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

64.73%chance

10694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

738

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.41%chance

10600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

52.9%chance

7592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

944

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

57.55%chance

10395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

859

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

62.71%chance

7357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

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