Data Patterns News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.27%chance

583580

OptionVotes

YES

1518

797

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.08%chance

212832

OptionVotes

YES

2129

470

Do you like 6% odds?

Oct 9, 5:00 PMFeb 26, 3:00 PM

6.21%chance

52157

OptionVotes

YES

10022

9661

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

YES

240

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Do you like 94% odds?

Oct 2, 7:10 PMDec 11, 7:10 PM

93.73%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

10029

9564

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Do you like 6% odds?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Do you like 94% odds?

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