Data Patterns News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.06%chance

826508702

OptionVotes

YES

57414

10596

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

29364

2889

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

72.83%chance

284419

OptionVotes

YES

1637

611

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.96%chance

573575

OptionVotes

YES

1536

792

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

1516

660

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

293

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

YES

240

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

Jan 25, 8:53 PMJan 26, 5:59 AM

2207

OptionProbability

10 - 12.99%

13 - 15.99%

7 - 9.99%

16 - 20%

4 - 6.99%

Above 20%

Below 4%

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

How much will the UAE workforce grow in 2026?

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