Data Patterns News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

69114

9469

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.96%chance

573575

OptionVotes

YES

1536

792

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.97%chance

212082

OptionVotes

YES

1529

654

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Do you like 14% odds?

Sep 11, 3:46 PMSep 25, 6:46 PM

13.49%chance

10751

OptionVotes

YES

1038

994

When will global population peak?

May 6, 10:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4703

OptionProbability

2071 or after

2065-2070

2060-2064

2055-2059

2050-2054

2040-2044

2045-2049

2034 or before

2035-2039

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Oct 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

7218

OptionVotes

YES

240

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Do you like 14% odds?

When will global population peak?

Do you think AI will help to reduce breast cancer by the end of 2030?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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