Data Patterns News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?

May 31, 1:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

3615776

OptionVotes

YES

9950

101

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.96%chance

573575

OptionVotes

YES

1536

792

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

1516

660

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will the majority of school children (in compulsory schooling age) in Vienna by 2050 be Muslim?

Apr 15, 8:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.31%chance

12432

OptionVotes

YES

131

Will the unemployment rate in the New York City metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than in May 2026?

Apr 10, 12:34 PMAug 1, 12:00 AM

58.19%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

118

Do you like 38% odds?

Jun 24, 6:12 PMJun 30, 6:12 PM

37.92%chance

423

OptionVotes

YES

10021

9987

Data Patterns News

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Prediction markets for Data Patterns

Prediction markets for Data Patterns

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will the majority of school children (in compulsory schooling age) in Vienna by 2050 be Muslim?

Will the unemployment rate in the New York City metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than in May 2026?

Do you like 38% odds?

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