Data Patterns News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

58313

10496

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Do you like 96% odds?

May 4, 9:24 AMMay 11, 4:56 PM

95.52%chance

204912

OptionVotes

YES

10047

8925

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.96%chance

573575

OptionVotes

YES

1536

792

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

1516

660

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will the unemployment rate in the Chicago metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than in May 2026?

Apr 10, 12:35 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

71.91%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

160

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Sep 13, 9:17 PMSep 21, 3:59 AM

30.62%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJun 1, 12:00 AM

14.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

210

198

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Do you like 96% odds?

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will the unemployment rate in the Chicago metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than in May 2026?

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

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