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Prediction markets for Data Patterns

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.7%chance

802468529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54986

10862

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

79.3%chance

264319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1958

511

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.81%chance

563525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

805

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

There will be a new CS2 Operation in 2025?

May 31, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.48%chance

8268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Do you like 52% odds?

Dec 8, 5:27 PMDec 20, 5:17 PM

52%chance

7173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Australian GDP be higher than Canadian GDP in 2030?

Mar 14, 3:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

28.09%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

How many EF4+ tornadoes will have hit the US by the end of 2025

May 20, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

551

OptionProbability

6

8+

7

5

39

26

21

14

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Sep 13, 9:17 PMSep 21, 3:59 AM

30.62%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

84

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