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Prediction markets for Data Patterns

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25491

17311

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

When will Brazil have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2025?

Mar 16, 11:25 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

135000

OptionProbability

December

November

October

September

August

July

March

April

May

June

44

38

35

25

20

17

1

1

1

1

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Dec 26, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.81%chance

563525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

805

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?

Nov 28, 5:04 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

38.39%chance

18952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

85

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31%chance

10410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

134

There will be a new CS2 Operation in 2025?

May 31, 7:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

7168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will Australian GDP be higher than Canadian GDP in 2030?

Mar 14, 3:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

28.09%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Sep 13, 9:17 PMSep 21, 3:59 AM

30.62%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

84

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