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Prediction markets for Data Republican

Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

97%chance

1810356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5750

178

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Mar 20, 7:16 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

715371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

862

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.34%chance

281117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

857

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 30% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.55%chance

14851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

936

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4600

OptionProbability

Mara Elliott

Kristie Bruce-Lane

Ed Musgrove

Marni von Wilpert

Other

58

30

8

3

1

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.82%chance

11429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

894

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

121

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4335

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Sean Frame

Other

72

25

2

What will be Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of his death? [resolves to percentage]

Feb 8, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

13175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

982

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.86%chance

790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

995

Average senator age in Jan 2029

Dec 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

330

OptionProbability

65 to <67 years old

63 to <65 years old

67 years old or more

Less than 63 years old

31

30

22

17

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