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Prediction markets for Data Republican

Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

94.59%chance

127898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4229

242

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Mar 20, 7:16 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

715371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

862

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

25951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

979

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 30% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.55%chance

14851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

936

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

1010

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

121

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

9378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

908

What will be Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of his death? [resolves to percentage]

Feb 8, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

13175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

982

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

994

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

250

OptionProbability

Marni von Wilpert

Kristie Bruce-Lane

Ed Musgrove

Other

70

10

10

10

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Other

55

45

Average senator age in Jan 2029

Dec 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

220

OptionProbability

63 to <65 years old

65 to <67 years old

67 years old or more

Less than 63 years old

28

28

28

16

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