Data Republican News

Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

95%chance

148127

OptionVotes

YES

4408

232

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Mar 20, 7:16 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

715371

OptionVotes

YES

1143

862

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

25951

OptionVotes

YES

997

979

In 2028, Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" continue its 13-election win streak of predicting the US PV winner?

Feb 7, 1:28 AMNov 7, 5:59 AM

8923

OptionProbability

"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election (predicts a Republican PV Win)

"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 30% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:39 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.55%chance

14851

OptionVotes

YES

1286

936

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Apr 10, 5:41 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

61.26%chance

42815

OptionVotes

YES

1055

1010

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4600

OptionProbability

Mara Elliott

Kristie Bruce-Lane

Ed Musgrove

Marni von Wilpert

Other

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.82%chance

11429

OptionVotes

YES

1282

894

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4335

OptionProbability

Roger Niello (incumbent)

Sean Frame

Other

What will be Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of his death? [resolves to percentage]

Feb 8, 7:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

13175

OptionVotes

YES

1027

982

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?

Feb 7, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.86%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

Average senator age in Jan 2029

Dec 29, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

330

OptionProbability

65 to <67 years old

63 to <65 years old

67 years old or more

Less than 63 years old

Data Republican News

Prediction markets for Data Republican

Prediction markets for Data Republican

Prediction markets for Data Republican

Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 70% before his death?

In 2028, Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" continue its 13-election win streak of predicting the US PV winner?

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 30% before his death?

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 50% before his death?

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 6th State Senate district

What will be Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of his death? [resolves to percentage]

Will Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans go below 60% before his death?

Average senator age in Jan 2029

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